Posted 4/12/2022 by admin

Blackjack Bankroll Requirements

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Introduction

There are some sources that address the question of the probability of doubling a bankroll before losing it, in a card counting situation. Ken Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack, to name one. This appendix shall not recover that issue. However, I am often asked about how much the basic strategy player's bankroll should be, given a targeted number of hands to play. This is especially practical if the player must play a certain number of hands to earn an online casino bonus.

The rules assumed for these tables are six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, player may resplit to three hands, no surrender, dealer peeks for blackjack. Under these rules, the house edge is 0.4140%.

Let's look at an example of how this table can be used. Assume that the player makes a deposit of $1000 to an online casino, and is required to bet through $5000 in action. If the player is to willing to play through 500 hands, then his average bet size would be $5000/500 = $10. The number of betting units would be $1000/$10 = 100. The table shows the risk of ruin is 0.01% for 102 units, so would be just over 0.01% for 100. Perhaps this is too conservative, so the player considers playing 200 hands. The bet size is now $5000/200 = $25. The number of units is $1000/$25 = 40. Interpolating the table shows the risk of ruin would be 1.5%.

In this system, at least 600 minimum bets are required with the spread of 1 to 12. These are the bottommost requirement in bankroll size for professional players, but if you are an amateur counter with a regular day time job, then the requirement could be to. Instead, it’s less than tripled, at $450, while the bankroll requirement for 8-5 Jacks rises to $570. On the more volatile Double Double Bonus Poker, that $300 bankroll for a 5 percent risk or ruin for two hours rises to $885. That’s a big chunk of cash, but at least it’s not the $1,500 you get when multiplying the $300 by five.

Number of Hands to Play

Risk of Ruin	100	200	300	400	500	600	700	800	900
50%	7	11	14	16	18	20	22	24	25
40%	9	14	17	20	23	25	27	29	31
30%	12	17	21	25	28	31	33	36	38
20%	15	21	26	31	34	38	41	44	47
10%	19	27	34	39	44	48	53	57	60
5%	22	32	40	46	52	58	62	67	71
4%	23	34	42	49	55	60	65	70	75
3%	25	36	44	51	58	64	69	74	79
2%	27	38	47	55	62	68	74	79	84
1%	29	42	52	61	68	75	82	88	93
0.5%	32	46	57	66	74	82	89	95	101
0.25%	35	50	61	71	80	88	96	102	109
0.1%	38	54	67	77	87	95	104	111	118
0.01%	45	64	79	91	102	112	122	131	139

Blackjack Bankroll Requirements

Number of Hands to Play

Risk of Ruin	1000	1200	1400	1600	1800	2000	2500	3000
50%	27	30	32	35	37	40	45	50
40%	33	37	40	43	46	49	56	62
30%	41	45	49	53	56	60	68	75
20%	50	55	60	65	69	73	83	92
10%	64	70	76	82	88	93	105	116
5%	76	83	90	97	104	110	124	137
4%	79	87	95	102	108	114	129	143
3%	83	92	100	107	114	121	136	151
2%	89	98	107	114	122	129	145	161
1%	99	108	118	126	134	142	160	177
0.5%	107	118	128	137	146	154	174	192
0.25%	115	126	137	147	156	166	187	206
0.1%	125	138	149	160	170	180	202	223
0.01%	148	162	175	188	198	212	236	261

Blackjack bankroll management calculator

Methodology

The tables above were created by random simulation. I have been asked several times for a general formula for other situations. Unfortunately there isn't any that I know of. Risk of ruin problems are mathematically usually very complicated. It is easier and more convincing to run a random simulation instead.

Written by: Michael Shackleford

Most people have a general idea of what a bankroll is, but for a post like this, we need to get a lot more specific.

Your bankroll is the amount of money you’ve set aside to gamble with.

You might have specific bankrolls for various games based on various goals. If you play games where you’re satisfied with a negative expectation, the size of your bankroll compared to the averagesize of your bets is what determines how long you’re able to play a specific game.

Poker Bankroll Requirements

If you’re a professional gambler, though, you’re probably more interested in avoiding going broke in the short run. Gambling is based on random chance, and even if you have a long-term advantage,you can still go broke in the short run because of variance.

Here’s a simple example of how that might work.

Suppose you’re playing a simple gambling game with a buddy where you have a 52% probability of winning, and she has a 48% probability of winning. She’s willing to bet you straight-up, too — ifyou win, you get $100 from her, and if she wins, she gets $100 from you.

Suppose you only have a bankroll for this game of $100.

Can you see how you’d have a good probability of going broke even though you have a distinct mathematical edge?

People lose bets all the time where they have a 52% probability of winning. They even lose several of these bets in a row sometimes.

Blackjack Bankroll Management

In the long run, your results should resemble the mathematical, theoretical prediction, but in the short term, anything can happen.

The goal of having a large bankroll relative to your bet size is to avoid going broke while you’re waiting for your long-term edge to kick in.

But that only applies to gamblers who have an edge.

Blackjack Bankroll Management Calculator

If you’re playing a negative expectation game, you’ll eventually lose all your money. The trick is getting the most entertainment for your money while you’re doing so.